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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers improving together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still